The aim of WP5 is to develop different development trajectories or scenarios for Norwegian
agriculture. These scenarios will then be analysed both individually and comparatively to provide a
knowledge basis for the generation of policies to promote bioeconomic growth. Norway’s core
productions of meat, dairy and grain, and associated land use, landscape changes, environmental
and veterinarian aspects, and bio-economic, socio-economic and socio-cultural aspects will be
incorporated in the scenarios and subjected to interdisciplinary analsyis.
9
Three scenarios will be created to reflect the dominant discourses in public and scientific debate on
the utilization of Norwegian land based bio-resources and agriculture:
1. Business as Usual – An extrapolative scenario based on the current level of economic
support and import tariffs and border protection. On-going trends with gradual
restructuring; fewer and larger units in the more central areas, increasing abandonment in
rural areas, but still agriculture all over the country.
2. Food production based on maximum use of national bio-resources in terms of fodder and
grazing. Increased levels of economic support, upholding current border protection
and import levies. This involves a much more extensive use of the outfields (utmark) and
possibly also cultivation of new land.
3. Liberalisation: Abandon subsidies to agriculture, removal of most border import
barriers, except for veterinarian and other health related control and barriers.
All scenarios will be used to explore the outcomes of a possible weak, strong and pluralistic
bioeconomy (Levidow et al., 2012; Marsden, 2012). Further, because Norway’s canalisation
policies focused production on grain in the central areas and animal husbandry in the uplands, fjords
and valleys, predictions of change to the spatial distribution of agriculture and the bioeconomy are
likely to be important outcomes of the scenario analysis.
The scenarios will analyse (1) land use and land use changes and potentials, the relationship
between infield–outfields and new cultivation, (2) the significance of the channelling policy within
the various scenarios, the effects of it being phased out, and the resulting influence on crops and
grain/dairy land use, and thus landscape development, (3) potential crop developments, primary
production and land use under different regional preconditions such as climate, soil and agronomic
conditions, and the degree of market liberalisation, (4) socio-cultural and socio-economic factors
related to types of productions, business managers/farmers, demographic and ownership changes,
and recruitment, and (5) agronomic challenges, animal and plant health and, animal welfare. The
scenarios will also provide a basis for quantitative prediction models and simulations.
In addition to utilising existing data and competences that exist in the collaborating partners’
institutions, this WP will use data generated through AGRISPACE (WP4) and draw on input and
findings from the on-going BIONÆR funded project AGROPRO (Agronomy for increased food
production. Challenges and solutions) (2255330/E40), which assesses the agronomic potential for
increased food production in Norway.
Scenario projects have previously been successfully completed at several of the participating
institutes (see eg. Soliva et al, 2008; Mittenzwei and Nersten, 2004; Brastad et al, 2003). Input on
international drivers and framework conditions will be obtained through the project’s international
collaborators. While Austria is currently deregulating some of its major productions (e.g. milk
quotas), New Zealand represents a full-scale experiment in the liberalisation of agricultural policies
(Burton and Wilson, 2012). Comparing experiences from this will form the basis for analysis of
factors central in a Norwegian liberalisation scenario. As veterinarian regulations concerning animal
and human health are likely to remain the main border protection under a liberalisation scenario,
special attention will be paid to analyse Norwegian veterinarian regulations and compare these to
the New Zealand experience.
This WP will deliver its main results and reports about two thirds way through the project, both
in order to provide knowledge and input to policy decision-making, and to provide input to the
analyses and discussions forming the main conclusions in the overall project. Scenarios will be
developed and analysed in collaboration with the reference group.
Work package leader: Katrina Rønningen, CRR. Additional participants: NFLI, NILF, Bioforsk,
NVI, Hugh Campbell, New Zealand & Markus Schermer, Austria